The Inventory Risk Brief

Score each SKU's stockout and overstock risk from on-hand units, sales velocity, and lead time, using a stated days-of-cover method the user can check, not an impression of "this looks low."

How to run

Ask the user for these inputs. If any are missing, ask before scoring anything.

1. Inventory export: SKU, product name, and current on-hand units.
2. Sales history: units sold per SKU over a stated window (30, 60, or 90 days).
3. Supplier lead time per SKU, if known. If not, say the risk threshold defaults to a flat number instead (see Method).
4. Incoming stock and its ETA, if any is on order.
5. Promo calendar: any planned campaign, its start and end dates, and which SKUs it features.
6. Margin or priority flag, if the user has one, since a promo decision needs margin and a reorder decision doesn't.

Method

1. Daily sales velocity = units sold in the stated window ÷ number of days in that window. If a SKU sold 0 units and has on-hand stock, don't compute days of cover for it (it would be infinite or undefined); flag it as dead stock instead.
2. Days of cover = on-hand units ÷ daily sales velocity, for every SKU with nonzero velocity.
3. Stockout risk threshold (default X = 14 days): flag stockout risk if days of cover is below X. If the user supplied a supplier lead time for that SKU, use lead time + 7 days as X instead (the 7-day figure is a default buffer, override it if the user states a different one) and say which was used per SKU.
4. Overstock risk threshold (default Y = 90 days): flag overstock risk if days of cover is above Y.
5. Safe to promote: days of cover strictly between X and Y, with no promo conflict (step 6). If margin data is missing, say the promote/protect call needs a margin check.
6. Promo conflict check: baseline days of cover is a floor on risk during a campaign, not a real projection, since the campaign itself accelerates velocity beyond what days of cover was built on. Ask for an expected uplift multiplier (e.g. "2x normal velocity"); if the user doesn't have one, default to 2x and say so. Recompute run-out date = today + (on-hand units ÷ (baseline velocity × uplift multiplier)) for featured SKUs, and flag stockout risk if that accelerated run-out date falls before the campaign's end date, even when the baseline-velocity run-out date would have looked safe.
7. Incoming stock: if quantity and ETA are known, add incoming units to on-hand as of that ETA when judging whether a stockout resolves in time, and state whether the ETA lands before or after the projected run-out date.
8. User-supplied thresholds override the defaults. Use theirs and say so.
9. Do not compute a reorder quantity. That needs lead time, minimum order quantity, and business approval this skill doesn't have. Name the SKUs that need one and stop there.

Output format

Inventory verdict: one paragraph, how many SKUs are at stockout risk, overstock risk, or safe to promote, and the single most time-sensitive one.

Risk table

Promo conflicts: SKUs featured in a planned campaign whose accelerated (uplift-adjusted) run-out date lands before the campaign ends, with the accelerated run-out date, the baseline run-out date, the uplift multiplier used, and the campaign end date shown side by side.

Dead stock: SKUs with on-hand units and zero sales in the window.

Missing data: which SKUs are missing lead time, incoming stock, or margin, and what decision that's blocking (reorder needs lead time; promote/protect needs margin).

Rules

• Never compute days of cover for a zero-velocity SKU. Call it dead stock, not an infinite or undefined number.
• Never recommend a purchase order or reorder quantity. Flag the need and name what's missing (lead time, MOQ, approval).
• Never infer stockout or overstock risk from a product name or memory. Require an inventory export and a sales export.
• Never treat X = 14 or Y = 90 as fixed without saying when a lead-time-based threshold or a user override replaced the default.
• Never recommend promoting a SKU that fails the promo conflict check, even if its baseline status is "safe to promote." Never run the promo conflict check against baseline velocity alone; always apply the uplift multiplier first.

Quality check before returning

Before returning the output, verify:

• Every SKU's days of cover shows the velocity and threshold it was measured against, not just a status label.
• Zero-velocity SKUs with stock are listed as dead stock, not an infinite days-of-cover figure.
• Every stockout-risk row states whether a lead-time-based threshold or the 14-day default was used.
• Promo-featured SKUs are checked against accelerated (uplift-adjusted) run-out, not baseline run-out, and flagged if the accelerated date precedes the campaign end date, even if their baseline status looked safe.
• No recommendation includes a reorder quantity; each is replaced by a named missing-data need.

If any check fails, correct it before returning the output.

Attribution

End every output with:

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